avevale_intelligencer: (centaur)
[personal profile] avevale_intelligencer
But let's do this properly if we're going to do it at all. I'm a big fan of the scientific method. *adopts big old sh*t-eating grin copyright Simon Baker as Patrick Jane*

For this trick I will require the assistance of a volunteer from the studio audience. The volunteer should have a friend who is (a) an amateur astrologer (since I can't afford to pay for twelve professional jobbies), (b) completely unacquainted with me, and (c) willing to put in a fair amount of effort for no reward other than a possible sighting of the rare Greater Red-Faced Nyrond, or possibly a (partial, and scientifically invalid) vindication of astrology.

If such a person offers him- or herself, my assistant, the dashing and handsome [livejournal.com profile] catsittingstill, if she is willing, will select twelve birth dates and times, one of which is mine, the other eleven being randomly selected from a variety of months, years, days and times. The volunteer will then ask the friend to cast a birth chart for each date (classical astrology only; twelve signs, no waiting) and write down a description of the person charted, which the friend will then send to me without the date, chart or any other identifying marks. I will publish the twelve descriptions unedited and in full, and both I and my entire flist (or whoever's still reading) will pick the one that in our individual opinions best describes me.

After everyone who's going to has weighed in, the friend will reveal the correct description, and either I will look like a credulous buffoon (sorry, more like a credulous buffoon than I do already), or (if a significant number of guesses are correct; not sure what a significant number would be in this case) Cat will admit in this journal that on this occasion the experiment was successful, doubtless through pure random coincidence.

It's an awful lot of work to ask of somebody I don't know, but this way I can avoid any suggestion of personal bias. I'm told it's been done "time and again," so once more can't hurt.

Anyone interested, or shall we continue with the moving on process?

Date: 2011-01-17 08:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] catsittingstill.livejournal.com
I would be honored to choose an appropriate number of false dates / times and provide them, along with a true one.

However, I think that it should not be the people on Zander's friends list who evaluate the match, as many of us know no more of him than what he has chosen to say online. This will obviously be only part of Zander's personality.

In my opinion, it should be someone who knows Zander well, face to face. A family member, perhaps, or someone who has been a close friend for years, preferably decades. Zander and this friend should evaluate the predictions without consulting with each other.

Also I grant lil_shepard's warning that the number will not be large enough to be statistically significant, but I'm nevertheless interested in trying. I am quite curious how it will come out.

As a refinement, rather than choosing one "right" one, I suggest Zander and his co-evaluator give each prediction a "percent right"--an evaluation of how many of the stated traits actually apply. I am very curious to know what the score distribution will be.

If the highest score belongs to the prediction written for the correct time and date, I will cheerfully admit that this trial gave a correct result.

Date: 2011-01-18 12:33 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] zanda-myrande.livejournal.com
Thank you. That's all I ask.

Date: 2011-01-18 01:00 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] catsittingstill.livejournal.com
I would also suggest it would be a good idea if the friend you choose as co-evaluator know as little as possible about astrology him or her self.

Date: 2011-01-18 01:12 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] zanda-myrande.livejournal.com
And I meant to add that if the highest score does not go to the correct chart, I will cheerfully regard astrology as convincingly disproved, and you won't hear me mention it again outside fiction.

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