(no subject)

[avevale_intelligencer]

Apparently Bill Gates has made a speech somewhere in which he confidently stated that CDs and DVDs are obsolete, and furthermore, that there will be no new physical storage medium to supplant them. He is of the opinion that from now on all music and video will be made available on the net and downloaded straight to people's hard drives via high speed broadband or DSL or whatever. He sees a future in which all our entertainment needs will be provided through the house computer. It seems that his audience thought this was wonderful news.

I admit that I used to think along those lines, back in the days when I thought that, say, being a gypsy was kind of a neat way to live, or that houseboats were a fun idea. I've grown up since. I'm sure Mr Gates is licking his chops at the thought of the future he describes, with everyone absolutely dependent for their entertainment on his software; and I'm also sure that the new version due to be unveiled any year now will provide Microsoft with even more of a stranglehold on our computers, and thus our lives. Let me conjure up an extreme scenario. Mr A, five or ten years from now, has a PC running Windows Second Week In August 2009, or whatever, and gets all his radio, TV, music and video recordings, games and so on online. He doesn't own a single CD, DVD, videotape or cassette, and boy is his house tidy. He's gradually converting all his books to ebooks and clearing the shelves. Then, one night in a fit of frustration at having had to reinstall Windows Just After Lunchtime On Saturday yet again, he mentions in an email to a friend the noticeable resemblance between Microsoft's products and a large pile of poo. Next morning his PC won't boot, Microsoft Technical Support have barred his number, and he has NOTHING. Some text-scanning robot has noted his opprobrious comment and applied an automatic procedure hidden in the software somewhere.

I said it was an extreme scenario. I don't think Gates would be allowed to get away with that kind of stunt (thougb I'm hard put to it to think who would stop him). But the old adage about eggs and baskets applies here. Diversity is good. Redundancy is better. Why have a dog and bark yourself, you might say? What happens when the dog gets laryngitis? So I am hoping that Mr Gates' golden future will keep its distance for a while longer, and while I shall continue to download things off the net, I don't consider I actually have them till I've got the shiny beermat in its pretty box on my shelf. If I can't see it and touch it, it could disappear at any moment. Besides, I'm a magpie. I like collecting things.

Thoughts?

Comments

[redaxe.livejournal.com]

I'm a magpie. I like collecting things.

And CDs and DVDs are so SHINY! :-)

I agree with you 100%. I detest thin clients, and net-based applications. I want control over my local system, and to communicate with ANOTHER system called the net, not to be run by it thankyouverymuch.

With luck, this scenario won't come about until the worms that ate me have been used by fishermen to catch something large and PCB-free. Hey, a man can dream, can't he? :-)

[pbristow.livejournal.com]

"Thoughts?"

[BRISTOW, HALF ASLEEP AND WISHING HE WERE FULLY SO:] Hmmm?

[PONDERS FOR A MOMENT]

The word "amen" springs to mind...

[PUTS SILLY-BILLY "No one needs more than 640k!" GATES OUT OF HIS MIND, AND WANDERS OFF IN SEARCH OF IBUPROFEN]

[folkmew.livejournal.com]

back in the days when I thought that, say, being a gypsy was kind of a neat way to live, or that houseboats were a fun idea. I've grown up since.

Um...I still think being a gypsy (assuming you mean it in the metaphorical sense) is a neat way to live and houseboats are a way cool idea. Mind you, in spite of really really missing our RV I am SO ready to settle down but I still loved living on the road and I frankly hope to do so again many years from now.

Does that mean I haven't actually grown up? :)

I love having all our music (almost) on mp3, but it is very nice to have a lot of it on CD or LP as well and yes, when the stupid frigging computers are down it's good to be able to play a CD. I'd NEVER give up real books for e-books. I like the idea of e-books. I love the idea that I could put an e-book on my palm pilot and NEVER be without something to read, but still, I cherish and treasure the real things.

And, of course there's another aspect to this that is close to all of us but you forgot to mention which is this:
He sees a future in which all our entertainment needs will be provided through the house computer.

I certainly hope that my familie's entertainment needs will be provided around the piano sometimes or with guitars or...I hope that through quiet revolution I can encourage more and more people to create their own entertainment!

[zanda-myrande.livejournal.com]

No, I meant literally, with the horse and the painted caravan and so on. I grew out of that idea when I realised that I had too much stuff to fit into a painted caravan and I wanted more. Real gypsies have to live stripped-down lives, and I can't do that. And a houseboat is a cool idea, but I gather from people who've tried it that it's even more high-maintenance than owning a house.

I think you've grown up in all the good ways. :)

[folkmew.livejournal.com]

Yeah, when we went on the road we got rid of a HELL of a lot of stuff. (and STILL had a large storage cube). I loved being on the road. I loved how easy it was to clean house (in a 35 foot RV worst case scenario I had the place spotless in 2 hours max). I loved feeling like "I owned my stuff, my stuff didn't own me" but still, I don't know that I could happily live my WHOLE life JUST in a trailer with no storage cube or docking house. I like too many stuff intensive hobbies like music, quilting (someday), painting, books books books...

besides

[urockgyrl.livejournal.com]

without paper how would we be able to send each other pictures? i send people cds of photos all the time

i love your article... esp. rebooting windows right after supper on sunday version 2.3

too funny!

[jahura.livejournal.com]

Thought number one:

• For making me laugh: Thank you and touche'.

Thought number two:

• I don't think we will ever get to the point where our lives will depend on some Giant Archive holding our stuff. The First Commandment of the Nerd Bible is Thou Shalt Back Up. Therefore even the illustrious Mr.Gates cannot deny the tens of thousands of discs and backup discs and copies of backup discs that are currently in his possession which he may or may not ever use again - but they are there, just in case. The discs may get smaller thanks to the Japanese credo Smaller is Portable and therefore Better to the point where one can carry the present Library of Congress on a keychain, but I don't think they will go away altogether.

Thought number three:

• There is a security in knowing that you have it, even if you can't find it but have found the reciept in the kitchen junk drawer and the warranty card marking a place in a Robert Asprin book presently sitting on top of the tank in the john so you know it's got to be around somewhere and you will find it eventually because you haven't loaned it out and who the eff would steal it? Having physical proof keeps you in the physical world. It gives one assurance that yes there is a world outside that window and it isn't just a projection.

Thought number four:

• To quote Avery Brooks in a 2000 commercial (the product I forget at this time): They promised us flying cars. Where's my flying car? Okay, so it may be a few more decades, maybe a century or two before we get to meet George Jetson, His Boy Elroy, Daughter Judy, Jane His Wife, etcetera live and in person. That doesn't mean everyone has to rush it along by subscribing to Tivo right now. In fact, I don't think I know anyone who does.

So my conclusion with these random neural misfires is there is still yet hope for the hoopoes and the magpies of the world. We may even save it when the Big Archive comes crashing down.

[armb.livejournal.com]

That's not an extreme scenario - this is an extreme scenario: http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/right-to-read.html

[keristor.livejournal.com]

Oof! What an article. I have issues with some of RMS's attitudes and opinions (I agree with him on many others, like this one), but he is one hell of an orator when he gets going and I respect the guy a lot for the way he isn't afraid to say what he believes (he also knows when /not/ to push and fan argument). I would love to buy him a drink or several and chat with him at a con sometime. That is an article which ranks in my opinion with parts of '1984'. Thanks for pointing that out...

[highstone.livejournal.com]

What are these 'CDs' you talk of Earthman? Most of my music is still on LP...(looks over to a pile of vinyl, atop of which is 'We Are Frank Chickens').

As to Beelzegates, I do my own small part to keep the devil down; by the kindness of fan-friends, the PC through which I make this comment is 100% Gates-Free!

[keristor.livejournal.com]

There's another point too, which is even more important -- survival of data. I have a number of books which were printed well before I was born, I bet you and most other readers have similar (if not older). Modern media has a planned life of at most a few decades, and that's physical life, never mind the fact that Word 2000 can't even read Word files from 10 years before because all the formats have changed. It depends on backups, and even the adherrents of the "put everything on CD/DVD" school say that you will have to not only back up but also change the format of your data every 10 years or so to the new versions.

Civilisation -- real civilisation, not just "the art of living in cities" (and we don't even seem to do that too happily) -- has depended and does depend on time-binding, learning from past generations. It's what distinguishes us from (most of) the animals, we can look at picures and tell the stories about our ancestors hundreds of years ago and learn from them. If your family photos have a lifetime of only decades, what will the next generation see?

There's another aspect, too. Gates's empire is built around constant 'upgrades'. To an extent this is inevitable, technology changes and sometimes it even gets better. However, a lot of the music industry is also built around 'upgrades' -- the latest cover of a song, rereleases "tidied up" and "remastered", etc. Again, this is not always a bad thing -- until they start changing the material. Do it with books, and, well, a few words might be 'upgraded' each time, until you have "Thou shalt commit adultery" and "Three Hundred and Seven years ago our ancestors said that we should all be slaves". Just a few 'upgrades', rendering things in "modern language" a few times, perhaps, and Hamlet's speach might be "To be loyal to my country, or to be a traitor, that is the question; whether it will pay more to suffer a bit of hardship to thwart the terrorists or to oppose my democratically elected government..."

[bohemiancoast.livejournal.com]

It's just his wet dream. How many things have once been online and aren't any more? How many electronic formats do we have that we can no longer read?
I will always, always, want my own copies of the important stuff, stored on at least two hard drives right here. I don't need CDs or DVDs, no, but I'm damn well keeping DRM-free stuff and the means to play it. And I may be the last generation that wants this stuff. But maybe not.